Volume 2 Chapter 7

We start with a short historical background, in particular the Sèvre, Lausanne and San Remo international negotiations after  World War I, for understanding the origin of the today’s complex situation. Afterwards we will thoroughly analyse the root causes of the conflict and the tense relations between the two Oil Giants, Saudi Arabia and Iran. These two countries, representing nearly a quarter of  global oil reserves, require a careful analysis of their antagonistic relationship. Saudi Arabia feels secure based on its privileged relationships with the USA, whilst Iran is prepared for a fresh start on the world stage, helped by the “nuclear deal” which we will examine closely. Both will continue to collect high oil revenues because any oil price reduction will be compensated increased volumes. The chapter continues with an analysis of the Iraqi oil situation , including an in depth consideration of Kurdistan. Their very large oil production potential will be freed resulting in a  world awash with plenty of oil  . The chapter ends with an analysis of the energy situation in the Maghreb countries, in particular the present and likely future export of gas to the EU. Their continued role as   global energy market players   will depend on their undertaking of radical political and structural reforms.

 

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